2/24/07 FCST: OH/KY/TN/IA/KS/MO/TX/LA/OK/IL/AR
January 5th, 2009The latest GFS is showing 80 knot 850 mb wind fields across KY, IL, IN, and Ohio next Saturday and Saturday Night. 500mb wind max of 140+ knot winds as well.
It appears that we "could" have ourselves an unusual February outbreak across portions of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys southward into the Tennessee Valley. If the models are correct then this could be one for the books.
Long way off still but right now it appears that areas from Arkansas into Missouri and Illinois and then eastward into Kentucky, Tennessee, and Ohio could have severe thunderstorms with tornadoes. Storm motion would prob be around 50 knots or greater. Fast moving supercells/squall line/high grad winds as well.
This will be one to watch.
EC
http://www.usawx.com/1eca.gif
- bill
I was just looking at the latest GFS and totally agree with your assesment. This event is starting to look most favorable for low topped tornadic supercells immediately ahead of the low. The model shows a well defined clear slot moving through Oklahoma & Kansas around by 18z. The problem I have is the convective mess that forms at 12z ahead of the vort max over Western Oklahoma/Southwest Kansas. Hopefully that's not the main convection for the day or we are in serious trouble.
Assuming it's not and things clear out late in the morning, Central Kansas is starting to look like a good target for low topped tornadic suppercells late in the morning Saturday through midday. By Saturday afternoon everything looks like a mean squall line, probably with imbedded supercells and tornadoes. Not very chaseable!
Well in that case...I may as well head to Erie KS and catch the F2 that looked weird but did some damage on it's fast and furious path northeast. Or join Dick and Darin up on I-70 near Junction City KS. Guess you really can't ignore some similarities as Mike pointed out...I guess I had better chase then.
Maybe it's the forecasted deep moisture available for it, or the insane negative tilt with strong wind fields at all levels, or the insane sfc low(not sure what one is looking for if they can't see what it might be with this one). I think anyone that can read a calendar can tell how far away it is. Maybe this should be a rule to the forecast section, no need to state it is such and such days out as a forecast. If anything isn't informing, but always bothered to be mentioned, that would be it.
For many runs this system has been out there in some form or another around those two days. It's probably safe to say at this point that it will at least be there. If it is too far out for you to talk about it, it's pretty simple.
I agree with Beau, this is one to watch. Can't ask for a lot more in February. ECMWF this morning(last night's 0z run) showing a sub-980 low in IA following a couple days of return flow off the gulf. Coupled upper jet structure over the southern states.
(by the way I think the date needs to be the 24th....though the 23rd will likely be game to)
Just for fun for those that might not look at the 6z gfs(I never do).
The only thing I am comfortable in asserting right now is what I mentioned above, and that the GFS is currently advertising a very powerful trough moving in midweek next week, developing a strong LLJ which is supposedly going to pull relatively decent moisture from comparatively "OK" trajectories up into the eastern southern Plains/Ozarks/Midwest by 0Z Friday, Feb. 23rd. Sometime between the 23rd and 24th of Feb, this powerful system will eject and interact with whatever moisture/associated CAPE it has managed to accrue. As of now the models are showing good CAPE across LA/AR of values to 1500/2000 - which is good 'n' plenty for late February with these dynamics.
Given my geographic position, it stands to reason that I will be watching this system closely and hoping for a possible weekend chase come next weekend.
A thread question; is there any chance of "regionalising" the area listing on the thread title?? Listing ten or more states in a FCST thread's title is a little bewildering when trying to ascertain the general area of interest......not to mention the fact that the state that seems to be at the center of a lot of the forecast SVR (Arkansas) has been shut out of the title completely.
Will remain to watch......
KL
Well - while the warm front's certainly a possible play up north into MO or wherever it ends up setting up, I think I'd rather stay closer to home for this Saturday. It will just not be worth my while to spend $$$$ on gas and leave in the dead of night to catch 60mph storms rocketing through the trees and hills at the warm front. If this scenario had the possibility of playing itself out in SErn KS or SWrn MO, I'd be interested - however it looks like it's going to be too early and too fast.
We will stay down close to home and in the nice, deep(ish) moisture. Maybe a jaunt west on I-40 to play with something in the daylight - although the atmosphere will have to tread the fine line of squall line vs. embedded supercells vs. discrete cells. Hell - after the past two months we have had here I will be quite happy to see lightning. And maybe a golfball or two. :cool:
I think my sentiments echo Jim Bishop's with some dashes of pessimism thrown in. The season is, after all, very very young. With all of the dynamics coming out into the Plains for Saturday's system - tornadoes look undeniable......somewhere. I just don't know if I want to be the one seeing them, trapped in a pac-man-style HP wrapping a hellish meso as it deforests part of the Ozarks. No thanks. :)
KL
After looking at this, if I were using this as guidance for an early, early preliminary target, I might be inclined to go with Brian's earlier notion of somewhere west of ICT (Pratt might work). But a person would want to be there plenty early in the day (I'd want to arrive in the a.m. even). Convection should additionally show up by mid afternoon further to the northeast (I'm still thinking Emporia to Topeka somewhere). We'll see I guess. For convenience sake, I'll probably be forced to stick with a target that's closer to home on Saturday. Wherever we end up, it looks like a matter of hoping to see something as it blows by.
http://members.cox.net/jondavies4/112705cks/112705cks.htm
It was even down to 987 west of ict by 17z. I remember the day clearly as I opted out of the severe side in KS to chase the blizzard in O'Neill. The main thing that got me to give up on the severe side was just how horrid the clouds were that morning. I think with such a vortmax one can toss the cloud cover factor out.
I guess I think it most resembles that day, that I can think of.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_096m.gif
System looks to have a healthy neg tilt at this point. Hard to believe that quality Gulf air is even a possibility, but will be watching during the week as things swing into gear. 500mb speeds currently look to be around 50 kts depending on location, so who knows ... it may even be somewhat chaseable. We'll see I guess. Not overly optimistic about that this time of year.
Current target (if things don't change during the next five days) for me will probably be Topeka to KC. Want to be close to the TP this time for manageable storm motion. Hopefully we'll have good moisture and some isolation at first, at least.
I'm impressed that the GFS (once it got passed the resolution glitches beyond 180 hours) has been showing a large area of 1000j/kg+ CAPE, and 500mb temps near or below -20C. The current GFS would suggest a significant severe weather outbreak across Eastern Kansas and Missouri, while the European is similar but extends things further north into Iowa. Either way they are both quite similar considering it's 6 days out.
The Ensembles support this general scenario as well, by concistently showing an intense surface low track northeast from Kansas to near the Iowa/Missouri/Illinois border during this time for several days now.
At any rate I believe a significant severe weather outbreak will unfold on Saturday across the Southern to Central Plains, namely Kansas, Missouri & Iowa. I'm expecting this to be the first big tornado day of the year. I just hope the system doesn't speed up, puting the tornadoes over non-chaseable terrain. Hopefully it will slow down just a bit and the event will unfold over Central Kansas & Nebraska.
- Jim
The triple point area should be in 55 or less dewpoints and that is a bit lower than I prefer. As others stated the immense forcing can make the storms go early killing good discreet severe, and finally what ever does emerge will be that early season fasting moving crap with possible poor visibilities / overcast.
This setup in some ways reminds me of April 7th 2001 which I previously referred to in my wx-chase account as "A Shocking Good Time", but I believe dews were higher that day.
Another thought, the (should I say 'lying' - :D) GFS is showing precip on Friday in OK. That area will have the better 60's dewpoints on Sat. If perhaps and outflow boundary did exist in OK and interacted with the shortwave....:D.
EDIT: Question - what snow cover like in KS / OK?
Yeah - this is what I was thinking too when I talked about Scott C's intercept that day. That day ended up going up further west than I thought it would. Seems like things had trended faster on the system and I really thought the convection would be closer to Topeka, but it ended up in Junction City. Definitely helps to stay flexible with these things until they happen.
Actually, it's reminding me a lot of April 11, 2001 too ... just further west. (Seems like I make this statement every year at some point ... might as well get it over with in February I guess, lol).
All the aforementioned scenario’s are very conditional. All model data outputs are computer generated attm, since the system is not developed yet to actually input real data. But models have been consistent on the track thus far.
Another threat is going to be mixed precip and or heavy snow on the backside of the system.. Which would effect the NW 1/4 of the FCST area. But that can be for another time and another thread.
Here's a summary of the GFS performance for the surface map valid 00Z, 02/25/07 (6 PM CST Saturday):
156 hr: 988 mb, near Kansas City
144 hr: 986 mb, between Peoria and Springfield, IL
132 hr: 986 mb, 30 mi SW of KS City
120 hr: 984 mb, 60 mi SSW of KS City
108 hr (latest run): 983 mb, 50 mi WSW of KS City
So, the last three runs have been quite stable, and this is also supported by the upper-level (H5) chart which also exhibited an anomaly in the 144 hr run (a much more open and more easterly H5 low as apposed to a compact closed low just left of the left-exit region of the H5 max shown by the last three runs).
The European and Canadian models and ensembles are also in reasonable agreement through Day-5. The latest ECMWF also develops a 983mb SFC low about 50 miles north of the GFS, while both the ECMWF and GEM have been consistent with strong high-pressure from the Hudson bay though the central Eastern Coastal areas during the period.
A few things are certain:
1) Low-level flow ahead of the system will send copious amounts of moisture northward.
2) A tight pressure gradient on the northwest side of the system will create blizzard conditions there.
3) In eastern Iowa, where I'm at, it looks like mainly a gray, rainy mess - although some convection appears likely, especially south of I-80.
4) Regarding severe/chasing potential - I wouldn't get overly excited. While this promises to be a severe outbreak in the warm sector, it's not going to be good "chasing" storms. Most of what we'll see are mini-supercells embedded in linear segments and larger convective areas, with extensive intervening low-cloudiness to get in the way of any storm structure that exists.
5) A possible exception to 4) will be in an area just east of the low during the early afternoon hours Saturday when the large area of AM precipitation works east and northeast and a clear slot with attendant heating takes place. 55F SFC/45F H85 dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft (H5 low -22 to -24 C) will produce some decent CAPEs through about 15 kft. Shear is potentially quite impressive – a negating factor being the stacked nature of the low. Still, given the magnitude of and gradients of wind velocities in this area, it appears as though some very impressive speed shear should result in a small area east of the low. Also, a strong H85 jet over backed SFC flow along with low cloud base heights should enhance tornadic potential.
- bill
I sincerely hope this isn't the case, and although my comments tend to "stir up the stink," I still just don't see this as becoming a dooms-day, end of the world outbreak. Yes, I do see the models just as everyone else, but I'm also going on a little history, climatology, time of year, and overall speed of this system.
Almost a mirror of last year, to me it appears the system will kick out very fast and too far east of the traditional alley, so there goes your good chase terrain - at least traditional chase terrain of years ago. Second, it looks this could be a nocturnal event with screaming squalls throughout the evening. Third, with the recent cold air intrusions all the way to the Gulf, even with several days recovery, I'm still somewhat skeptical on TRUE gulf moisture getting far enough north where the better dynamics are forecast. And finally, limited surface heating due to widespread cloud cover due to streaming moisture ahead of the low. A stratus deck is very typical for these early-season systems with this type of flow and associated moisture overrunning dormant vegetation/terrain.
Again, these are just my thoughts. As stated before, there's nothing more I'd prefer than an active season starting early and giving everyone a great wealth of photogenic storms. All I'm saying is, BEFORE talking about fatalities, widespread tornadoes and an outbreak for the record books, there's more to it than just model forecasts. We've seen a lot of these early systems do the very same thing, so I'll remain skeptical until 1-2 days out.
Bill,
On the long drive back from the Storm Chaser Convention (Denver) to KC most of the snow had melted except for some shady spots and where very large drifts occured. Personally, I think the moisture may be slightly underdone because of the almost 6-8 inches of snow that has just melted in a matter of days across all of Kansas, that should keep the soil very moist and that could somewhat enhance the moisture content. Not terribly but maybe a few degress in the line of 1-2F. As for Oklahoma I'm not positive, but most likely it is the same story down there too.
ECMWF 00Z run - surface low elongated from NE KS - far NW OK, with 500 hPa low close to Pratt
GFS 00Z run - surface low KS/OK border S of Pratt - 500 hPa low E TX P'handle
GFS 06Z run - surface low Cent KS - 500 hPa low near Wichita.
GFS 06Z much closer to ECMWF 00Z run, with E KS looking primed for a cold core situation.
Friday evening - could be some stuff firing on the dry line in the Panhandles area:
For 00Z Saturday:
ECMWF 00Z has 500 hPa feature near 4 Corner, dry line sharpening across P'handles - best instability CDS area, surface low N CO.
GFS 00Z - 500 hPa feature in AZ,
Kevin
ECMWF and GFS are quite close with placement of the initial low...so consistency is pretty solid yet. Still reviewing the mid to upper level winds on this as looking at models and coming back here to post.
1. Upper level energy is definately there with this either way we go. Speed shear and directional shear look maximized in Missouri/Arkansas areas at this time southwest to NE Texas. Believe Illinois will also get in on the action as well at this point. Supercells in AR/MO/OK *should* consilidate into a fast moving squall line and move rapidly east into a line from Tennessee to Mississippi.
2. Dews to the mid 50s rapidly advecting north into the cyclone, with 60+ Tds even into Missouri will support the thunderstorm activity as a pronounced dry slot moves into Missouri and eventually SE Iowa.
3. Clouds should limit initial instability but shear and dynamics should over come. Expect fast moving supercells at the onset rapidly congealing into a messy squall line.
In my opinion do not expect this to be a chaser's dreamfest... as clouds and speed will make this difficult. However for those wishing to simply see convection and strong forward flank winds, it will be a sure arrival to spring in those sections.
This is just a quick analysis at this point....will look more later today for any revised thoughts and accept constructive criticism from peers more educated than I.
Absolutely. That was the case for the 10 April 2005 Kansas cold core event.
We woke up to a relatively cool and cloudy morning in Hays, so we had doubts about any decent convection that day. However, several tornadoes occurred late that afternoon only one county west of Hays within a narrow corridor of
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s.
Again, these are just my thoughts. As stated before, there's nothing more I'd prefer than an active season starting early and giving everyone a great wealth of photogenic storms. All I'm saying is, BEFORE talking about fatalities, widespread tornadoes and an outbreak for the record books, there's more to it than just model forecasts. We've seen a lot of these early systems do the very same thing, so I'll remain skeptical until 1-2 days out.
We had systems to even kick out last year? LOL. They all kicked out the same? Guess I don't get how it can mirror a year as a whole. I guess I never thought of the problem being the speed they were kicking out.
Chase terrain. Since when is KS bad chase terrain?
It's going to be nocturnal? I thought it was too far out? To me it looks like it has much more potential to be an early event(like noon).
Cloud cover. It's pretty amazing what can happen in crappy cloud cover when you kick a vortmax out onto the plains like that. But hey it is too early to get specific...or at least I thought it was.
As it is more than model forecasts, it's more than every negative aspect one can post about.
Edit: Oh yeah and moisture. Low Level Jet (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_850_wnd&hours=hr072hr084hr096hr108hr120hr132hr144hr156) I hope that is favorable lol. The gulf may have had a recent frontal passage but you have a decent tropical connection there, in advance of the system.
Some very good points there. I think if the system verifies close to the way it looks now, there will still be an outbreak at least in the southern states. Deeper moisture, slower storm speeds, and greater insolation prior to storm development would make this area much more ideal. To the north there'll likely be more linear squalls, and elevated hailers moving at very high speeds. The upper winds down south are more veered too, which is nice. As others have stated, the mid and upper level winds up north are highly backed, so I think supercells are much less likely up there.
Still all early speculation, but it's fun.
(6) When you start a thread, use the following subject format:
date type: geographic area
For example:
3/7/06 REPORTS: TX/OK Panhandle
Dates must be in MM/DD/YY format (the U.S. standard).
Geographic areas must define one or more entire states... (GOOD: OK, AR/TN, Nebraska) (BAD: Gulf Coast, SE U.S.)
(9) Chase topics spanning multiple or ambiguous dates are prohibited, such as "FCST: This Weekend". Map Room is chronologically organized and is dependent on exact dates. Pick the most representative calendar date and post your message there. Commit to a date, and if it changes you can always move to another thread or start a new one.
--> SPECIAL RULES: Mandatory reading! (http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=9812)
Key points: Each thread may only pertain to a single day, and specific states must be listed. As has been the case in the past, "long-term forecasts" are allowed in Weather and Chasing (typically, these are events that are >7 days in the future, making them quite speculative and making it difficult to pin down exact date(s) and locations).
We relaxed the rules in order to deal with the winter weather systems of the past few months. As we head into spring, however, please do what you can to ensure posts and threads are compliant with the rules. Again, I'm not intentionally pointing out Beau, as I've seen this a few times in the past week. Just a friendly reminder before the "real" chase season heats up through the next couple of months :)
http://www.usawx.com/crosssectionfeb18thimage.gif
The low deepens to the 980s on the GFS as it moves through the Missouri Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has painted an area across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys with the potential of a "significant" outbreak. Still a day six or seven event...so a lot of things can change. Model consistency has been amazing.
Taken at face value this would be a chase day across Illinois and Indiana. Storms would be racing along though...likely at speeds of 50 mph or greater.
Not sure why it was all changed like it is now. The date and area is totally wrong.
Thanks
The system should eject into the Plains around noontime Saturday. Due to a strong low-level jet, we will see suffient low-level moisture return into OK and KS by the afternoon. Storms should then erupt along the dryline and blast eastward. All of this along with strong vertical shear will be supportive of tornadic supercells, some of which could be strong. The supercells should move east throughout the afternoon and evening as the system moves east. The cells should converge into a squall soon after dark and bring damaging winds and heavy rains to the Mississippi River Valley.
Am thinking of targeting the I135 corridor between Newton and Salina which should be a bit closer to the TP which I like better because of a bit slower storm speeds.
That said, I suspect a great deal of grunge and low visibility systems will compound the severe threat. This may be a powerful early season storm but as is often the case will be a difficult one if one is looking for photogenic or high contrast footage. One will have to be on their toes, either ready to chase after it, move out of the way, or get in the right place at the right time for the shot. It's a ways out, but I too believe this one (as an early pre-guess) will produce low visibility, fast moving tornadic storms somewhere over the Plain states, my guess right now, Missouri-Kansas should be in the hot seat.
The strong system approaching the Plains starts affecting the region on Friday as height falls begin to overspread the region, and SSE winds transport Gulf air into the TX/OK region - dry line looks like setting up from SW TX - N Cent KS, with the best forcing appearing to be over the TX P'hndle/SW OK - shear suggests supercells, and with 60+dew points in place, tornadoes also possible. Overnight, squall line starts to take shape.
Saturday - squall line continues east, with some (but at this stage, not impressive) instability ahead of it - however, given the very dynamic set-up and strong shear, tornadoes seem quite likely, from MS/LA northwards towards IL. However, the most chaseable set-up maybe a cold-core type event over E KS/NW MO.
Plenty will change as the week progresses, but at this stage, a rather nasty event seems quite likely.
GFS is somewhat quicker with the progression of the trough - at least the 00Z run was.
It wouldn't surprise me if there is problems early-on due to debries from earlier convection in the warm sector -- given that the strong low-level WAA will likely generate plenty of elevated convection in the latenight/early morning hours near the warm front. However, I'd assume things could clear up by the afternoon, with the strong DPVA/frontal forcing + warm/moist advection likely being enough to kickoff strong supercells near the sfc low and along the dryline/sfc trof, given the strong deep/low-level shear and likley sufficient CAPE in place.
I doubt that I'll be chasing this system, but I sure wouldn't have minded it, if I had the money. My laptop was stolen, and my miniDV is pretty screwed up. I probably won't bother to chase until April given the lack of funds. I just hope this season won't be like the last one... :rolleyes:... On the other hand, I am about that age where I could get a credit card, though... :D
On the other hand I'm considering a possible alternative. Seems to me down in the juicer air 60+ dews extend just into southern OK and eventually just into southern MO from 12z to 0z. Center of mid low vorticity at 12z is just west of ABI where it will rocket to ne OK by 0z. During this time it will intercept the southerly extending dryline into north TX. Appears for awhile the jets will all be there. This could mean a very early 12zish and a few hours after supercell and tornado opportunity before all that forcing blasts off for the rest of the country. I'm thinking currently an area bounded by Ardmore, Wichita Falls, and down toward DFW might be prime. Thoughts?
Asside from these usual uncertainties days before the event, it still looks like a big severe weather outbreak starting over Central or eastern Oklahoma/Kansas, and then blasting northeast or north-northeastward into Missouri/Arkansas. Whether it becomes more of a tornado event than a strong wind event remains to be seen. I'm betting on tornadoes followed by a damaging squall line. Either way I see no way around tornadoes occuring on Saturday.
Still lots can change, but as of right now this is what I think is the best areas to setup. Man, if this really does pan out it should be pretty wild. I'm anxious to see the next model run.
We woke up to a relatively cool and cloudy morning in Hays, so we had doubts about any decent convection that day. However, several tornadoes occurred late that afternoon only one county west of Hays within a narrow corridor of
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s.
Same with 04/20/04. Remember the possibility for flooding too. Especially in Central Mo and IL. Already 15 inches of snow still on the ground. You get one of them HP sups or training effect going over all saturated and in some cases still frozen ground, it has no place to go but up! Not really a forecast but a reminder. Still way out but, so I wont post a forecast quite yet....
Yes - there definitely seems to be a unique form of tornado produced by these unique storms. They don't seem particularly strong (although the one that Scott Currens, Darin Brunin and Dick McGowan caught a year ago last November in Jct City seemed strong enough to me). Seems like most of these mini supes like to produce slender tubes for the most part, screaming like heck up the landscape.
As for Saturday target - sooooo many things will finally shape that. It's hilarious that we're even talking about it right now. But you can bet that on Friday we are all going to be watching potential track of this low pretty dang close. If it indeed turns out to be a low-topped cold core chase, my personal thinking is to get tucked up as close to the low (or even NORTH of it) as I can. Seems like some really cool stuff goes on up there with these things. I don't like being too far south for a cold core setup. Seems like the storms riding that funky boundary that sets up are pretty sweet. Storm motions get pretty weird up there. Anyway, critical point will be positioning ... keeping track of storm track, along with where that tongue of instability winds up.
The set up now looks juicy, the proof of all this will be if the runs can MAINTAIN their consistency. If I see one major shift or wobble in model thinking, or they suddenly go all over the dartboard, I'm not counting on any of this to actually pan out. Just my thinking at this time.
http://i84.photobucket.com/albums/k3/wolverines028/weekend_storms.png
I agree deeper is better, but not sure why you think further north is. Seems to me the further south the low and warm front set up along with interaction from the short wave the more realistic it is to assume we have enough moisture return from the Gulf for chasing. I'd like to see the low start out west of CDS and remain easterly for awhile. The deeper srfc low further south would also aid in better / quicker moisture recovery.
Otherwise, the general "look" of the 2/24/07 cyclone is certainly quite similar to that of 11/27/05.
With each run, the GFS has been gradually pushing the dewpoints further south to more believable levels for this time of year (remember the 60's Td's in central MO when the system first presented itself?). However, the depth of the low has remained consistent for the duration that the GFS has been tracking this system. In fact it has even deepened a few mb in the past couple runs.
The nam/wrf now extends out to Friday evening so we can start gauging it against the gfs. The nam/wrf has the low slightly deeper and further north (both good things I believe). The moisture extends further north with the low, but its a much thinner tongue.
Kind of a good point here. I'd say 500mb flow during the April 6 Salina to Hanover cyclic tornadic storm was from about 210 degrees. I personally was surprised that storm was able to remain discrete for as long as it did given the intense dynamics and rather meridional nature of the mid-level winds. The 2-8km shear vector did have some crossover with the dryline that day, but not a lot. I think strong isallobaric adjustments were creating some extremely favorable 0-1km SRH in the corridor where that storm was, which was never really sampled directly (though the TOP RAOB was kind of close)... this may have been a factor in its persistence.
Discrete tornadic supercells can and do occur with near-unidirectional deep southerly flow. 09/21/06 last year is a good example, but these storms were immediately in advance of a compact closed low with a well-timed dry slot wrapping in ahead of it.
Back to Saturday... I've been seeing a much more elongated vort max in the progs, with mid-level flow actually forecast to back with time on the "northern" end of things as the wave goes negative tilt. In that regard I believe it's a little different from April 6... and the progs spell more of a squall line/line segments to me.
I think we're all aware convective mode is hard to anticipate. Pattern recognition and drawing comparisions are still a good thing.
Edit: I actually like the looks of the 12Z GFS better, esp for cold core activity. The vort max is awfully elongated still, but the sfc and mid-level lows are in far closer proximity and it doesn't occlude as quickly. The prog looks very, very similar to the 11/27/05 event; like, nearly a mirror image. *Disclaimer: Surprise! it's still too early to tell.* lol.
Just have to remember to stay positioned near the occlusion point or even just a bit west or northwest. As deep as this surface low is forecasted to become, the occlusion pt. should stand out very clearly. I am hoping for a similar chase to the 4/10/05 event, but still unsure on a few of the more critical paramater overlaps. I guess it is time to bone up on Jon Davies "cold core" case studies, and then see how things mesh on the forecast models for Saturday's event. :rolleyes:
As the low develops over northeastern New Mexcio during the day Friday and ejects northeastward through the Central Plains and into the Midwest, it looks like the cold sector of this system is going to blast the Front Range, western High Plains and northern Plains with yet another ferocious blizzard Friday night-Sunday morning. The warm sector will feature a very prolific severe wx and probable tornado outbreak over the eastern portions of the southern/central Plains. It is indeed very exciting to see such a potent system this early in the year. It suggests that this spring, if not this season may attempt to dramatically overcompensate for last year's mediocrity.
But on the other hand, it is quite ominous at the same time, and I am quite concerned about the residents of the eastern sections of the Southern/Central Plains, the Ozarks, the Mid-Mississipi Valley and the Lower Ohio River Valley in the Friday-Saturday timeframe. This is a very powerful system you'd expect to see in mid March, not late February. I don't think most residents outside of the meteorlogical community are going to see this one coming. I mean, who in the general public besides us weather weenies would be thinking 'severe weather' in late February, let alone 'tornadoes'???
Also, these storms are going to be screaming along in excess of 50 mph and possibly as fast as 70 mph ahead of the 100 knot + jet streak, so not only will the rapid motion of the storms make them a difficult chase proposition at best, but will significantly shorten the warning lead times and leave a very narrow time window for residents to seek shelter. I believe that either on Friday or Saturday afternoon, depending on how fast the low ejects, tornadic supercells will erupt across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma as well as western Missouri and Arkansas and then race eastward into 'The Jungle' (the Ozarks & Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley) after dark and threaten points farther east well into the early morning hours on Saturday or Sunday.
Not to be a doomsday prophet, but taking into consideration the time of year this system is occuring, the overall extremely volatile atmospheric setup, a forecast strong LLJ which would allow the storms to remain tornadic well after sunset, low storm/tornado visibility due to darkness/topography and recent fatal events during the overnight hours in this area, I believe we will see a significant number of fatalities from this outbreak if it all comes together as forecasted. Having examined recent fatal overnight tornado outbreaks with significant fatalities make me suspect this outbreak will be no different. In fact, due to the lack of severe weather awareness at this time of year and the potential severity of this outbreak, it may possibly be much worse in terms of fatalities.:eek:
We're still five days out and things could change between now and then, but both the concurrency of the recent model runs and my meteorological gut tell me something wicked this way comes. If I lived in Little Rock, Tulsa, Springfield, Kansas City, St. Louis, or Memphis, I'd be paying extremely close attention to the forecasts over the next five to six days. Des Moines/Omaha and Dallas/Fort Worth/Shreveport should take notice as well in case the storm would shift further south or north of its predicted trajectory.
Looks like we could be in for a very rough weekend.:(
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